China sends 49 military aircraft around Taiwan in one day, most of them off the southwest

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said it detected 49 sorties by Chinese military aircraft around the island in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on Tuesday 3 November, Taipei time, along with six People's Liberation Army Navy ships and six other Chinese state vessels. Of those aircraft, 31 entered the air defence identification zone over the central, southwestern and eastern parts of the island, the ministry said in its daily report, as carried by Business Insider Taiwan, FTNN and Eastern Broadcasting.

The total is a sharp jump from the numbers the ministry has reported on most recent days, the Liberty Times noted. The ministry did not describe the activity as a named Chinese exercise, and the Public Television Service reported that the defence minister characterised it as training.

Where the aircraft flew

The ministry's map split the activity into four groups. The largest, 36 sorties by fighters, support aircraft and drones, operated off southwest and south Taiwan from about 7 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Monday 2 November. Twenty-eight of those aircraft entered the southwestern part of the air defence zone, and their tracks continued round to the southeast and the waters east of the island.

A second group of seven fighters and support aircraft was active over the Taiwan Strait from 8:35 a.m. until 7 p.m., and one of them crossed the median line into the central part of the zone. Four more aircraft, including drones, flew north of Taiwan from 9:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m., while two helicopters were tracked in the airspace east of the island from 9:05 a.m., according to the ministry's figures as reported by Business Insider Taiwan and Eastern Broadcasting.

The ministry said Taiwan used patrol aircraft, warships and shore-based missile systems to monitor the activity and respond.

Minister points to sea and air training

Defence Minister Wellington Koo told reporters at the Legislative Yuan on Tuesday afternoon that the armed forces had a close grasp of the trend around the Taiwan Strait. He said the recent activity was mainly sea and air training in the southwestern airspace, and that the military was watching it through joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and would respond appropriately, FTNN and the Public Television Service reported.

The surge came on the same day that four China Coast Guard ships entered the restricted waters around Kinmen in two pairs, one from east of Liaoluo and one from southwest of Damaoshan, according to the Public Television Service. Taiwanese coast guard boats shadowed each ship one-on-one and broadcast warnings telling them to leave.

A quiet exercise, analyst says

Su Tzu-yun, who heads the defence strategy and resources division at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded think tank, told the Liberty Times he saw the activity as an unannounced, quiet exercise and part of a pattern of high-intensity grey-zone pressure. In his view, Beijing is relying more on combat readiness patrols and routine coast guard law enforcement operations that it does not publicise, and their frequency may rise.

Su linked the timing to recent signs of outside support for Taiwan, including a renewed statement by the foreign ministers of the United States, Japan and South Korea on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait on the sidelines of a G20 foreign ministers meeting, and the end of a major US-Japan military exercise. He said he expects China to hold its usual year-end drills to test its forces. He also noted that the activity came during Taiwan's local election campaign, and said the response of Taiwan's forces matters most.

The Public Television Service said Taiwan's military is also planning to buy more than 1,000 uncrewed surface vessels, partly to widen maritime surveillance, and that domestic and US makers demonstrated boats in Tainan on 2 November.