Section

Analysis

Long-form assessments, commentary and strategy from our analysts.

A US Air Force honour guard airman holds a rifle at attention as Chinese PLA officers in green uniforms and a US Army general walk into the Pentagon

Why Zhang Shengmin's rise, detailed on 13 November 2026, shows Xi putting PLA loyalty before war-readiness

A report on 13 November 2026 showed the PLA purge enforcer is now the only other member of Xi's military commission, a sign discipline outranks combat command.

TaiwanDefence · 12m ago · 4 min read

A grey aircraft carrier with fighter jets parked on deck sails on a dark choppy sea as a jet flies low toward its stern under an overcast sky

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why China's unannounced 100-ship drill, revealed on 13 November 2026, matters more than a named exercise

Taiwanese officials said on 13 November 2026 that China massed over 100 ships in an unnamed drill larger than Justice Mission 2025. The missing name is the point.

TaiwanDefence · 1h ago · 4 min read

A large white Taiwanese coast guard patrol ship marked CG5002, with red, white and blue hull stripes and ceremonial banners, moored at a rainy shipyard quay

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why China's coast guard patrol east of Taiwan on 12 November 2026 is a contest over jurisdiction

A Chinese coast guard ship told a Taiwanese cutter off Orchid Island on 12 November 2026 that it was enforcing Chinese law, a day after the G7 warned about the east.

TaiwanDefence · 7h ago · 4 min read

A grey F-35A fighter jet in an open-sided aircraft shelter with a ground crew member in a high-visibility vest signalling in front of it

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why a US audit of F-35 spare parts, published on 9 November 2026, matters for Pacific air forces

A US audit published on 9 November 2026 found the Pentagon cannot reliably track 31 billion dollars in F-35 parts, a weak spot for allies building around the jet.

TaiwanDefence · 2d ago · 3 min read

A small grey drone with joined wings flies against a deep blue sky trailing a white contrail

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Japan's fighter scrambles, tested by Chinese drones again on 11 November 2026, are a poor match

Japan scrambled jets on 11 November 2026 as two Chinese drones looped past Yonaguni, yet higher, longer PLA drone flights expose the limits of crewed intercepts.

TaiwanDefence · 2d ago · 4 min read

Two grey F-22 stealth fighters taxi on a runway on Tinian with green trees behind them

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the US Air Force's Marianas airstrip plan, reported on 12 November 2026, hinges on fuel and consent

A plan reported on 12 November 2026 for 6,000-plus flights a year from four Marianas airfields shows dispersal near Guam is mostly a logistics test.

TaiwanDefence · 2d ago · 4 min read

A large grey South Korean Aegis destroyer sails out of harbour past a green shoreline under a blue sky

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why North Korea's conventional arms rush, tallied on 11 November 2026, strains Seoul's playbook

A count published on 11 November 2026 found 15 North Korean conventional weapon reveals in about two months, as G7 ministers condemned Moscow's help.

TaiwanDefence · 3d ago · 4 min read

Two Chinese soldiers in camouflage run along a dirt track beside a tracked armoured vehicle numbered 346, with smoke rising from a hillside behind them

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why a PLA brigade's compulsory counter-drone drills, reported on 9 November 2026, matter for Taiwan

PLA Daily said on 9 November 2026 that a 75th Group Army brigade made counter-drone training mandatory, as Taiwan weighs NT$55.9 billion for drones.

TaiwanDefence · 3d ago · 4 min read

Indian border police marksmen in white snow gear train with rifles on a snowy Himalayan slope

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why India's border-police commando push, reported on 10 November 2026, is built for face-offs

Nikkei Asia reported on 10 November 2026 that India is forming border-police commando units for clashes with Chinese troops, with drones getting most of the money.

TaiwanDefence · 3d ago · 3 min read

A grey Indian Navy corvette sails in open sea behind a US cruiser and a large aircraft carrier

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why India's 2 November 2026 corvette order looks more like a fleet-age fix than a leap

India signed for eight corvettes on 2 November 2026, but most of its corvette fleet is over 20 years old and the first new ship is not due until about 2030.

TaiwanDefence · 3d ago · 4 min read

A grey twin-engine Chinese J-16 fighter jet carrying missiles under its wings flies against a blue sky

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the drop to one PLA aircraft near Taiwan on 9 November 2026 does not mean Beijing has eased off

Taiwan counted one Chinese military aircraft on 9 November 2026, down from 49 a week earlier, but the warships stayed and the pressure shifted to the sea.

TaiwanDefence · 5d ago · 4 min read

A missile leaves a bright trail of flame and white smoke as it climbs from a launcher on a grassy coastal field under a pale sky

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why a November 2026 call for cheap Steelfin interceptors runs into T-Dome's command-network gap

A Taiwan defence think tank urged on 9 November 2026 that Taipei weigh Anduril's low-cost Steelfin, but cheap missiles need links T-Dome still lacks.

TaiwanDefence · 5d ago · 4 min read

Aerial view of a coastal launch site with a concrete pad and a mast beside a road, low green buildings and forested hills behind and a gravel shore in front

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Taiwan's November 2026 push for its own satellite launches matters for wartime resilience

Lai's 9 November 2026 space speech put satellite links and launch access under the security council, but Taiwan's own launch range is not due until 2032.

TaiwanDefence · 5d ago · 3 min read

Four grey fighter jets fly in loose formation beside the wing of an airliner above a layer of cloud at dusk

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the November 2026 F-16 weapons report matters more for Taiwan than the new jets' arrival

A defence ministry report covered on 9 November 2026 shows Taiwan's new F-16s will fly for years before their glide bombs and jamming pods are complete.

TaiwanDefence · 5d ago · 4 min read

Aerial view of the Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian with hull number 18 on its deck, moored at a pier with fighter jets and helicopters parked on the flight deck

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the Fujian carrier's 5 November first anniversary matters more for Taiwan than China's combat claims

China marked the Fujian carrier's first year in service on 5 November 2026; its repeated passages around Taiwan matter more than claims of full combat power.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

A dark grey twin-boom Chinese TB-001 drone with long straight wings flying over the sea

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why China's 5 November TB-001 drone flight past Okinawa matters for Taiwan's eastern flank

China flew an attack-capable TB-001 drone toward Japan's Danjo Islands on 5 November 2026, one of several recent drone loops that also skirt Taiwan's east side.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 3 min read

A row of Taiwanese coast guard officers in dark tactical uniforms stands in front of a large white patrol ship marked CG 129 with red and blue stripes

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why longer coast guard shifts matter more for Taiwan's grey-zone endurance than new hulls

Frontline Taiwan coast guard crews said on 8 November 2026 that sea shifts now stretch to about 12 hours. Holding off China's patrols depends on people as much as ships.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

A white Philippine Coast Guard offshore patrol vessel with a red stripe sits beside a shipyard pier

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Manila's rebuke of sea-incident publicity matters more than summit optics

The Philippine foreign ministry said on 8 November 2026 that publicising West Philippine Sea incidents cannot replace statecraft. The choice will be tested at sea, not only at summits.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

Rows of camouflaged road-mobile launch vehicles carrying large missile canisters marked DF-41 drive through a parade square

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the DF-61 ICBM's move into routine drills in November 2026 matters for a Taiwan crisis

China said on 5 November 2026 that its DF-61 ICBM has entered routine training; analysts doubt that proves faster development, but its survivability matters for Taiwan.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

Warships from several navies sail in formation at sea while military aircraft fly overhead during a multinational naval exercise.

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Malabar 2026's sub-hunting focus matters more for Taiwan than the Quad summit optics

Malabar 2026 opened on 5 November with the Quad navies rehearsing submarine hunts while China kept more than 100 ships at sea around Taiwan's approaches.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

A ring-shaped coral atoll in a dark blue sea, with the small island of Pratas on its western rim, seen from orbit.

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why China's dark-ship coast guard probes at Pratas matter more than the expulsion count

On 31 October 2026 a Chinese coast guard ship ran dark into Pratas restricted waters, the 13th such entry this year, and analysts say the real test is supply access.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

A US Army soldier holds a small Raven unmanned aircraft overhead before launching it.

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why CENTCOM's unmanned surge matters more for Taiwan as a joint-force scaling template

In November 2026 the Pentagon said Central Command received more than 25,000 unmanned systems this year, a fielding it frames as the start of joint-force scaling toward the Pacific.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

A grey Taiwanese Rui Yuan II military drone with a large white pod under its wing displayed on a blue exhibition floor

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the navy's NT$990m Yilan drone airfield plan matters for watching Taiwan's northeast seas

A 2027 budget line reported on 8 November 2026 puts a navy drone runway in Yilan, aiming to cut transit time and give drones a wartime refuge.

TaiwanDefence · 6d ago · 4 min read

U.S. Marines with a truck-mounted missile launcher on a road in the Batanes Islands

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why keeping MRF-SEA continuously in the Philippines matters more for Balikatan 27 than another short visit

The U.S. Marine Corps says Marine Rotational Force-Southeast Asia is on its second continuous Philippines-focused rotation after a 26 October 2026 turnover, aiming to carry lessons into Balikatan 27.

TaiwanDefence · 8 Nov 2026 · 3 min read

A white China Coast Guard patrol ship with hull number 3105 sailing on open blue sea

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why the AFP's smaller October tally of Chinese ships is not a sign of easing pressure at sea

The AFP said on 3 November 2026 it counted 80 Chinese ships at four West Philippine Sea features in October, down from 101, yet 33 were warships.

TaiwanDefence · 8 Nov 2026 · 3 min read

An olive-green Taiwan Army truck carrying soldiers tows a towed howitzer onto a parade ground

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Taiwan's December army truck tender matters more for wartime logistics than the German truck on show

A NT$23.3bn tender for 2,434 army trucks opens in December 2026; the real test is whether Taiwan escapes the spare-parts trap that crippled its last fleet.

TaiwanDefence · 8 Nov 2026 · 4 min read

Taiwan Navy minehunter Yung Jin moored at a naval base pier

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Taiwan's quieter NT$237bn mine-hunting USV line matters more than the suicide-boat race

Commercial Times on 4 November 2026 put a late-2027 mine-warfare unmanned tender beside the attack-boat exhibition frenzy; the budget book already funds twelve surface craft and matching underwater kits.

TaiwanDefence · 7 Nov 2026 · 4 min read

Taiwan NCSIST Chung Shyang II Albatross unmanned aircraft on a parade truck

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Gu's year-one drone buys matter more for 2027 IOC than one frozen budget line

On 3 November 2026 Gu framed coastal drones as two-year consumables with annual rebuys; by 6 November defence lines were still stuck short of the 20 November vote.

TaiwanDefence · 7 Nov 2026 · 4 min read

Front-left view of a large Taiwanese military unmanned aircraft nose and fuselage on indoor display

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why Czech drone makers talking assembly lines in Taiwan matters more than forum optics

On 30 October 2026, former Czech Chamber speaker Marketa Pekarova Adamova told Taipei that battle-tested Czech drone firms are ready to move production lines to Taiwan.

TaiwanDefence · 6 Nov 2026 · 3 min read

Taiwanese honour guard and band stand in formation at an outdoor military ceremony as officials look on

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why NCSIST's first international Aegis Cup matters more for Taiwan's cyber force than for weekend trophies

On 5 November 2026, Taiwan's state missile institute named DEF CON regulars for Tainan finals that Liberty Times says already feed the Information, Communications and Electronic Force.

TaiwanDefence · 6 Nov 2026 · 3 min read

West front of the United States Capitol building in Washington

ANALYSISAnalysis

Why writing the six assurances into US law would matter more for arms sales than for symbolism

A Taipei panel and Taiwan People’s Party lobbying after the 2026 midterms revive the Six Assurances to Taiwan Act. The real test is whether statute can limit executive pauses on already approved weapons.

TaiwanDefence · 6 Nov 2026 · 4 min read

Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun in naval uniform shaking hands with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin

ANALYSISAnalysis

Xi's purge leaves the PLA short of generals, but analysts in Taipei see no let-up in pressure on Taiwan

Willy Lam told a Taipei seminar on 28 October 2026 that only a handful of PLA full generals remain. A thinner high command need not mean a quieter strait.

TaiwanDefence · 29 Oct 2026 · 4 min read

Two grey guided-missile destroyers, an Indian ship on the left and a US ship on the right, sailing side by side on open sea

ANALYSISAnalysis

What India's approval of Project 18A destroyers settles, and what it leaves open

India's defence council cleared Project 18A destroyers on 26 October 2026, but their size, number and engines are still unsettled and service entry looks a decade away.

TaiwanDefence · 28 Oct 2026 · 3 min read

Tracked self-propelled howitzers with long gun barrels drive in a column along a parade avenue

ANALYSISAnalysis

India's nod for 335 more K9 Vajra guns could make a desert-bought howitzer its mainstay facing China

India's October 2026 approval of 335 more K9 Vajra-T guns builds on lessons from Ladakh, but a long road from approval to contract still lies ahead.

TaiwanDefence · 27 Oct 2026 · 4 min read

A soldier in camouflage uniform and helmet kneels beside roadside foliage holding a rifle

ANALYSISAnalysis

Taiwan's admission that it pays for US war-game observers puts a price on quiet military ties

A 21 October 2026 report on Taiwan's NT$82.4m plan for US observers at its Han Kuang drills shows Taipei funds much of its quiet military link to Washington.

TaiwanDefence · 21 Oct 2026 · 4 min read

A Taiwanese air force pilot in a helmet waves from the open cockpit of a grey Mirage 2000 fighter on the runway

ANALYSISAnalysis

Taiwan's plan to keep senior pilots flying to 58 may miss why most of them leave

As the plan awaits Cabinet approval, a 21 October 2026 report says workload and leave go unaddressed, while lawmakers' data point to mid-career exits to airlines.

TaiwanDefence · 21 Oct 2026 · 3 min read

A tall grey and blue office building with an arched glass roof and an Alabuga Special Economic Zone sign at its entrance

ANALYSISAnalysis

New photos put North Koreans at Russia's military drone hub, but their role on the line is unproven

Photos and eyewitness accounts reported on 20 October 2026 place North Koreans at Alabuga. Whether Pyongyang gains drone know-how is still an inference.

TaiwanDefence · 21 Oct 2026 · 3 min read

A grey Ukrainian drone boat with a mounted machine gun on a display stand at a museum entrance

ANALYSISAnalysis

Ukrainian think tank says Taiwan needs at least 1,600 drone boats as its navy readies a 1,320-boat tender

A Serpens Center study presented on 20 October 2026 says mass decides drone-boat warfare. Taiwan's own plan is smaller and slower to reach swarm control.

TaiwanDefence · 21 Oct 2026 · 4 min read

A light truck carrying a four-missile air defence launcher parked on an air base apron

ANALYSISAnalysis

Taiwan's new NT$3.1bn missile upkeep deal shows how much it still leans on ageing air defences

A maintenance contract reported on 20 October 2026 and a life extension for the 20-year-old Antelope show Taiwan paying to bridge the gap until NASAMS arrives.

TaiwanDefence · 21 Oct 2026 · 4 min read

President Lai Ching-te stands with helmeted Taiwanese tank crews in front of M1A2T Abrams tanks

ANALYSISAnalysis

Taiwan's army is building its tank force around the M1A2T as frozen funds put its upkeep at risk

With Abrams tanks bound for the Lien Yung drill in late 2026 and CM11s headed for storage, a frozen NT$1.3 billion parts budget is the weak link.

TaiwanDefence · 20 Oct 2026 · 3 min read